About
Limitations
AEGIS is transparent about data tier, lag, and model boundaries. This page tracks what is live today and what is planned next.
Planned improvements
- Get a higher ACLED Tier, giving me access to more data for Escalation Index. The code works the same with more up-to-date data.
- Direct ACLED API for weekly/event-level granularity.
- Actor-level escalation detection.
- ML-based index calibration against historical escalation outcomes.
- Subnational index breakdown.
Current limitations of AEGIS
- Only have access to data from Jan 2018 to exactly one year ago for the Escalation Index, as I currently only have Researcher Tier ACLED access.
- Interactive map data has a 1–2 month lag due to my ACLED access tier.
- ACLED public ArcGIS layer for the map is monthly aggregated at subnational level, not individual events.
- Some countries may have sparse data in earlier months.