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Advanced Early-Warning & Geostrategic Intelligence System

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Countries & regions

Intel layer types

Years of history

Powered Analysis

Capabilities

What AEGIS Does

A global risk intelligence platform that tracks conflict escalation patterns, surfaces early-warning signals, and delivers AI-powered geopolitical analysis — before situations deteriorate.

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Escalation Index

A composite monthly index (0–100) built from six leading indicators — event frequency acceleration, explosions, strategic developments, civil unrest, and civilian targeting ratio. Separates intensity from acceleration to catch both sustained conflicts and newly escalating ones.

Leading Indicators

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Interactive Map

A 3D globe and 2D map visualizing conflict hotspots globally. Click any data point to see a full breakdown of event types — battles, explosions, strategic developments, protests, riots, and civilian violence — with country-level aggregates.

Real-Time Data

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AI Analysis

AI-generated country insights, trend interpretation, and comparative analysis — connecting index data to real-world events. Ask any question about a country's conflict profile and receive a specific, data-grounded answer.

Groq · Llama 3.1

Background

Built by a Student.
Serious by Design.

AEGIS was built independently by Alexander Armand-Blumberg, a high school student with a lifelong passion for defense policy, geopolitics, and security research. What started as a question — what signals precede a conflict escalating? — became a full-stack intelligence platform.

The name comes from Greek mythology. The Aegis was the divine shield of Athena — not just armor, but an instrument of foreknowledge and strategic clarity. That's the mission: give decision-makers clarity before the crisis arrives.

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Sample Index Output — Ukraine

StatusESCALATION FLAGGED

Smoothed Index0.0

TrendRising ▲

Peak MonthMar 2022

Flagged Months0

Recorded Fatalities0

See Data & sources for feeds and provenance.

How It Works

The Index Methodology

Six components, each normalized globally by percentile rank, combined into a single weighted score. The design separates intensity (how bad is it now?) from acceleration (is it getting worse?) — because both matter for different reasons.

Raw Conflict Intensity

Battles + explosions in absolute terms. Ensures sustained wars like Ukraine score high even with flat month-over-month change.

Event Frequency Acceleration

Month-over-month % change in total events. Catches countries entering or re-escalating conflict before intensity peaks.

Explosions / Remote Violence

Shelling, airstrikes, drone strikes, IEDs. Precede ground battle fatalities — a leading signal of escalating military operations.

Strategic Developments

Troop movements, HQ changes, ceasefire collapses, territorial control shifts. Signal intent and capability changes.

Civil Unrest

Protests + riots. Social instability often precedes armed conflict escalation — a leading indicator of political breakdown.

Civilian Targeting Ratio

Violence against civilians as a proportion of total violent events. A shift toward civilians signals strategic deterioration.

Get Started

See It Before It Happens.

AEGIS is live and currently free to use. Track any country's escalation index, explore the global conflict map, and generate AI-powered intelligence briefings in seconds.

Launch Demo →